Colombia’s ELN Rebels Mobilize for War Amid Trump Intervention Threats

CONFLICT MONITOR Colombia / USA Crisis

STATUS: HIGH ALERT // ELN MOBILIZATION

BREAKING: ELN DECLARES 3-DAY ARMED STRIKE /// CIVILIANS ORDERED TO REMAIN INDOORS /// US DEPLOYS 15,000 TROOPS TO CARIBBEAN /// PETRO WARNS: "DO NOT WAKE THE JAGUAR" ///

Executive Summary

Tensions between Washington and Bogotá have reached a critical breaking point. Following explicit threats of military intervention from the U.S. administration, Colombia's largest rebel group, the ELN, has mobilized for war. A 3-day "armed strike" has been declared, locking down territories to prepare for "imperialist aggression." Meanwhile, diplomatic relations have collapsed, with sanctions imposed and military assets deploying to the Caribbean.

Key Actors & Stances

ELN Rebels

INSURGENT

"Preparing defense against imperialist intervention."

• Declared 3-day lockdown/armed strike.
• ~5,800 active combatants.
• Controls Catatumbo (drug region).
• Warns of regional guerrilla war if Venezuela attacked.

The U.S. (Trump)

AGGRESSOR

"Petro better watch out now, or he is the next target."

• Threatened ground invasion/strikes.
• Deployed aircraft carrier & 15k troops.
• Revoked Petro's visa & imposed sanctions.
• Seeking to oust Maduro (Venezuela).

Colombia (Petro)

DEFENSIVE

"Do not wake the jaguar."

• Warns strikes = Declaration of War.
• Claims 1 lab destroyed every 40 mins.
• Record cocaine seizures in November.
• Relations with US at historic low.

Escalation Timeline

Pre-Crisis

Trump returns to power; signals hardline stance on narcotics.

Early Week

Trump warns Petro "watch out"; threatens Venezuela. U.S. deploys carrier & 15,000 troops.

Diplomatic Break

Washington sanctions Petro, revokes visa. Seizes Venezuelan oil tanker.

Friday (Current)

ELN announces war preparations & 3-day lockdown. "Defensive maneuvers" begin.

Strategic Data Analysis

Quantifying the buildup of forces and the tangible costs of the escalating conflict. The data reveals a massive asymmetry in conventional power, balanced by the insurgents' territorial control and the intensity of maritime engagements.

Military Presence in Region

Comparison of US deployed troops to Caribbean vs Estimated ELN Combatants.

Insight: The U.S. has deployed nearly 3x the manpower of the entire ELN active force to the Caribbean theater alone.

Maritime Strikes & Fatalities

Recent US military actions against suspected vessels.

Insight: Over 20 authorized strikes have resulted in 80+ fatalities, drawing condemnation from human rights groups as "extrajudicial killings."

Colombia's Defense: Lab Destruction Rate

Projected daily destruction based on President Petro's "1 every 40 mins" claim.

Insight: At a rate of one lab every 40 minutes, Colombia claims to destroy ~36 labs daily. November marked the largest cocaine seizure in a decade.

Regional Impact Zones

Explore the key territories affected by the current crisis. Select a region below to view specific intelligence reports.

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Select a region from the list to view intelligence.

© 2025 Conflict Monitor. Based on verified reports of ELN mobilization and US Military activity.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Colombian Ministry of Defense, White House Statements.