BEIJING — The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed today that China’s economy expanded by 5.0% in 2025, precisely meeting the central government’s annual growth mandate. The result marks a significant achievement in policy execution, occurring against a backdrop of intensified trade friction with the United States and persistent structural challenges at home.
The data, released on January 18, 2026, serves as the final report card for the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), positioning the nation for its next strategic phase beginning this year.
Strategic Pillars of 2025 Growth
The 5.0% expansion was underpinned by a dual-track performance: a high-performing export sector and a stabilizing, albeit cautious, industrial base.
Export Diversification: Despite expanded U.S. tariffs, total exports remained a primary growth engine. This resilience was driven by a decisive pivot toward ASEAN, African, and Latin American markets, which now represent a larger share of China’s trade portfolio than the U.S. and EU combined.
The "New Three" Advantage: China’s dominance in Electric Vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries, and renewable energy technology provided a critical buffer. EV exports alone rose by nearly 50%, cementing China’s role as the global leader in the green transition.
Industrial Upgrading: Manufacturing investment remained robust, specifically in "new quality productive forces"—a state-led initiative focusing on semiconductors, aerospace, and advanced robotics.
Macroeconomic Indicators at a Glance
| Indicator | 2025 Performance | 2024 Context |
| GDP Growth | 5.0% | 5.2% |
| Export Growth | 5.4% | 0.6% |
| Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 (Dec) | 49.0 (Avg) |
| Trade Surplus | $1.2 Trillion | $823 Billion |
Internal Headwinds and Policy Responses
While the headline figure met targets, internal data highlights a "two-speed" economy.
Domestic Demand: Consumer spending and retail sales growth remained subdued, reflecting a "precautionary savings" mindset among households.
Property Sector: The real estate market continued its five-year correction. However, systemic risk was mitigated through state-led debt refinancing and a shift toward "urban renewal" projects.
To counter these pressures, Beijing utilized targeted fiscal tools, including the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds to fund infrastructure and technological self-reliance.
The Road Ahead: The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030)
The successful 2025 results provide the baseline for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which officially commences this year. Preliminary policy signals suggest three core priorities:
Technological Sovereignty: A shift from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with a focus on breaking bottlenecks in core technologies.
Structural Rebalancing: Transitioning from an export-dependent model toward a "Dual Circulation" strategy that empowers the domestic consumer.
Modernized Industrial System: Integrating AI and digital infrastructure into traditional manufacturing to maintain global competitiveness.
China enters 2026 having demonstrated industrial resilience in a fragmented global trade environment. However, the focus of the next five years will likely shift from achieving "nominal growth" to ensuring "economic security" and internal stability.
